8th April 2009: Using the 1929 DOW Crash Timing for Predicting the NZ$JPY
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Wed, 08/04/2009 - 05:07
I have charted the NZ$JPY from the 2007 peak and superimposed the 1929/2007 DOW charts from Doug Short of http://www.dshort.com
By assuming the timing of the current crash matches that of the 1929 crash, I have been able to predict the bottom of the markets in mid 2010. Combining this with the chart extending the long-term bottoms, I get a prediction of NZ$JPY=20 in mid 2010.
The fall so far follows the resultant trend line quite well.
To get the end date, and then using the value from the 2nd chart, the trend line:
To get the end value:
Thu, 09/04/2009 - 06:29
#2
Feel free to post links
Hi Gibber 
I only just have enough time to create the charts. If you find a suitable place to post a link please feel free.
(Edited: OK, I've posted a link here: http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/04/09/housing-market-... )
Of course there are no certainties, but I'm still on the side of it going down not up.
You should link to this from interest.co.nz
Very prescient of you to target the change at around 58 - 59 Yen to the NZD and now it looks like it may be heading back down (around 57 Yen to the Dollar at this time)