Gold Price Prediction to 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 by Steve Netwriter
This is my significantly updated gold price prediction for 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015. It isn't really a prediction, but an analysis of GoldUS$ and the G5 index since 2000, with trends simply extended up to 2015.
Also, it isn't a gold price prediction, but a US$ price prediction, the cost in oz of gold of buying US dollars, and likewise, the cost in oz of gold, of buying a basket of major currencies.
This is an update to my previous article:
Gold to Oct 2011
The reason for this update is explained here:
Would you trust someone who never made a mistake? What about someone who does make mistakes?
in which I've explained a "small" error in the trend lines.
Hopefully these charts (which took a few hours to create), are pretty close to correct.
First a chart up to Jan 2012:
On 4th Jan 2000, GoldUS$=281.5 and the G5 index=96.32. I've used the ratio 281.5/96.32 = 2.923 to set the two y-axis scales. In this case, with the G5 index scale top being 450, I've set the GoldUS$ scale top to 2.932x450 = 1315.
So the first thing you will notice with this chart compared to the old one, is that the GoldUS$ line rises above the G5 line, showing that the US$ has lost purchasing power relative to the major currency basket.
From 2000 to late 2005, the G5 index roughly followed a 7% rend line (based on 2000).
From late 2005 to late 2008, the G5 index was "supported" by a 10.5% trend line (based on 2000).
Also I have plotted a 15.5% trend line (based on 2000), which roughly forms "resistance" to the G5 index from 2006 to now.
I have plotted a 21% trend line based on the "take off" point in Sep 2005.
I have also plotted a 200 day moving average of the G5 index, which you can see coincides with the 21% trend line now.
This chart simply extends out to 2015: