Gold Daily Chart: Jesse's Cup and Handle analysis and targets.

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Capt Goodvibes
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http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/06/gold-daily-chart-form-of-cup-and-handle.html

Jesse wrote:
As the 'handle' of the cup and handle chart formation formed, it slowly yielded enough points to finally place 'the lid' on the cup and hand, and firmly label the rims.

This allows us to set the minimum measuring objectives. There will probably be a run higher to about 1375, with the usual back and forth noise, after the breakout is achieved with a firm close above 1260 that sticks for a week.

Then we will experience the first major pullback, most likely back down to the 1330 level. And then the market will continue to rally up to the 1455 level.

I cannot furnish time frames for these moves at this time. But I suspect the move to 1375 will be fairly expeditious once the breakout is clearly accomplished.

All forecasts are estimates assuming some 'steady state background conditions. If the fundamental conditions of markets change, then the forecast must change to accommodate that.

As an aside, I can see where some chartists might try to feature the handle of this cup as a bearish rising or ascending wedge. This is a weaker interpretation given the greater substance of the cup and handle. It should also be remembered that bearish wedges only resolve lower about 50-60% of the time, and really are not safe to play until there is a clear breakdown. I have paid dearly to learn that lesson when trading stocks from the bear side.

Gold Weekly Chart

I think we can safely assume that the next 24 months will be extremely interesting.

Here is a very long term gold chart showing the entire inception at the end of the twenty year bear market.

The next leg which we are now entering projects to about 2180 - 2200 before we would expect to see a major protracted pullback.

I do not think that this bull market will be limited to only 'four legs,' which is just a bit of anthropomorphism, but I do strongly suspect that it will continue until about 2020. So we seem to have almost ten more years of upside ahead of us, and could be considered to be at the halfway point.

Gold has been gaining, on average about 70% every three years. So what is the end point?

Just for grins, I would expect gold to hit $6,300 near the end of this steady bull run, but will the bull market will end in a parabolic intra-month spike towards $10,000. This is likely to occur around 2018-2020.

Long term forecasts are fun, but there are so many exogenous variables that it is very hard to say what will happen even a few years out. Let's see how this breakout goes, and where we are at then end of this year first. The charts will inform us of any major trend changes. Charts provide perspective more than prediction.

I have been following Jesse's analysis of this formation for a few weeks now, and have found it very educational.
TA provides an interesting visual of market sentiment, and these charts certainly dovetail pretty well with developments in the markets that I have been paying attention to.
This cup and handle, coming so soon after the massive reverse head and shoulders in the gold chart, points to very strong upwards movement on said chart, beginning very soon.
Fundamentals are very bullish too.

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/ is a part of my daily reading.

Capt Goodvibes
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Dan Norcini weighs in

Dan Norcini had the following to say of golds performance for the week, at JSMineset.com

Norcini wrote:
I mentioned in one of my earlier posts this week that bulls would need a Herculean effort to blunt the effects of Monday’s big downside reversal day. Guess what – they got exactly that!

In one of the more remarkable displays of gritty determination and tenacity that the gold market has seen since it first began its decade long bull market, the longs have completely negated the bearish downside reversal day pattern that emerged on the charts after Monday’s significant sell off from a new record high price. This simply does not happen very often, in any market for that matter, and has never occurred in gold since 2001. If you are a short, you have to be reeling in stunned disbelief. There are serious buyers at work in gold.

This performance is not merely impressive (that is too mild of a word), it is stupendously rare! Again, at the risk of beating a dead horse, the technical action in gold is telling us that the character of the market has completely changed from the pattern that we have grown accustomed to seeing the past 9 years and has now taken on a life of its own. This is acting like a market that wants to go higher, considerably higher.

To do that however, it now needs to take out the $1,265 level and hold that level for at least a 24 hour period. If it does, it is on its way to $1,280 – $1,285 for starters.

With open interest continuing to hover around 600,000 it is evident that the bulls did not engage in a mass exodus from the market after Monday’s significant drop lower but instead dug in their heels. That alone was enough to force the shorts to begin covering; it was also enough to bring in some new buying as well. Some would-be bulls sitting on the sidelines after Monday’s session noticed the price action and jumped back into the fray. The result – gold climbed all the way back from its low of the week and actually moved higher than last week’s close during today’s session.

Not only did the Comex gold market see a remarkable turnaround, the mining shares put on a spectacular showing almost completely erasing the damage down on Monday as well. The HUI dropped briefly below the rising 10 day moving average on its daily chart on Wednesday of this week but the rebounded during that session and has steadily risen since. It is back within striking distance of this week’s high just shy of 496, which if the bears are unable to hold, will set the shares up for a quick rise to above 500.

Outside market factors were not much of an influence on gold today as the equity markets were relatively quiet for a change as were the Forex markets. That is what makes the strong move up in gold more significant. Again, it is trading on its own merits – something which is contributing to the change in investor psychology towards this market. Investors want to own the metal – period!

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