Chris Martenson - Visiting Speaker at Yahoo's "Outside In" Program 17th June 2010 MUST WATCH

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Steve Netwriter
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Hot off the press Smiling

Chris Martenson - Visiting Speaker at Yahoo's "Outside In" Program 17th June 2010

Part 1:

From http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hojTLJDH4aM

Part 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxXws1XoOhw
Part 3: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agRT7nKxiS4
Part 4: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eIadHCUN-jo
Part 5: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S906SxQiUzc
Part 6: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=llAhn-6G3BM

I hope that's the right part 6.

Enjoy.

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Steve Netwriter
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My comments on Chris's Talk

First, the guy introducing Chris.
I thought that intro was going to be like many other boring intros.
No, not at all. A very good introduction.

I'm not going to comment on any of the very many (should be) well known concepts that Chris has explained in the Crash Course. If you've not watched it...you've still got the opportunity to learn. But, if you wish, stay ignorant Smiling

OK, in video #2 @5:00, Chris says:

Quote:
All money is loaned into existence

Yeah sure, we all (should) know that. But then he says:

Quote:
At any moment in time, there is always more debt in a society than there is money.
If you want empirical data, in the US today there is roughly US$52 Trillion in debt, and 10 to 14 Trillion in money.
Well how does that work?
If we wanted to pay that debt back, we'd have to borrow the money to pay it back.
...
Perpetual growth is a requirement of modern banking.

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Steve Netwriter
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Plotting Exponential Curves

I've had a discussion about this, and to my frustration, other supposedly intelligent people just didn't get it.
Maybe my explanation was bad. I don't think so.

OK, so here's Chris's description, maybe I'll try using this quote next time:

Video #2, @11:50.

Quote:
If you're math minded, you'll realise I'm pulling a fast one here.

Chris then explains that you can redraw the curve to get different 'results'. But this is the point I have made:

Quote:
It's meaningful if you can fix the axis though.
If you can constrain that axis, and you know what the limit of the system is, if it has a boundary, all of a sudden it is legitimate to say am I on the flat part or on the steep part?

As I've said, it depends upon whether the system is bounded.

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Steve Netwriter
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Chris on Peak Oil

Video #3.

Remember exponential growth (in demand) on a finite planet.

Interesting charts.

Quote:
Quality is an issue

How much does it cost to get the returns?

Quote:
Must grow versus Can't grow.
Which of these two things wins?
I always lean towards the reality side.

Smiling Smiling

Copper mining. Hmmm, good point.
Now mining 0.2% ore.
Why? For fun?

Quote:
Problem or Predicament?

Economic growth required quantity and quality.
Enough stuff, and at a cheap enough price.

Chris has a kayak Happy horizontal clapping

Video #4 @5:00 onwards and #5 & 6 are the Q&A. I'll cover that later.

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Steve Netwriter
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Standard of living and quality of life

I missed a very important point.

Standard of living and quality of life.

Chris said:

Quote:
My standard of living got whacked, my quality of life is a lot higher than it's ever been.

Like the difference between price and value Smiling

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Steve Netwriter
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Chris and the RBNZ

Video 4 @14:00:

Chris has cited the NZ reserve bank as one of the best because it considered house price 'inflation' as one form of 'inflation'.

"They tried to keep a lid on it."

Of course they failed.

=============

Video 5 @4:00

Quote:
When were the great cathedrals of Europe that lasted a thousand years, when were those built?

Right after the black plague came through, and they were built under a system where money wasn't the limiting factor, it was labour, so money was actually at 0% during that period.
It stretched people's time horizons out.

Now that is Bernard Lietaer's point about charging interest.

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Steve Netwriter
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To Chris: Why should I consider that you are right?

Video 5 @5:10:

A guys in the audience says:

Quote:
Many people over the centuries have come on gone, who used to think like you...they have all been proven wrong...why should I consider that you are right?

Chris jokingly replies, loudly into the microphone:

Quote:
BECAUSE I SAY SO

Sideways laugh Sideways laugh

More seriously, Chris says:

Quote:
If you think Thomas Melthus had the same quantity of information available as I do today, you've got a pretty good point to make, but he did not.
...
I just operate on facts.
Here's a fact, global oil discovery peaked in 1964.
You have to find it before you produce it.

And this is the bit I love:

Quote:
The stone age didn't end because we ran out of stones.

Happy horizontal clapping Happy horizontal clapping

Quote:
Because we went from stones to bronze to steel, all that stuff.
But in energy, we went from wood to coal to oil, I need to know what's that question mark.
We don't have another source of energy.

Thomas Melthus.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Robert_Malthus

IMO, Chris is not only a very good speaker, but his logic is very very good. So far, I only have one query about all of the things I've heard him say!

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Steve Netwriter
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Home schooling

Home schooling Happy horizontal clapping Happy horizontal clapping

A great story from video 5 @4:20:

How did we start preparing our children?

Home schooling.
I wanted creative, adaptive children.

Quote:
To fast forward, we don't talk to our kids about this very much.

They got some bank stock from their grandmother.
And they got their first dividend cheques.
We had one of those proud moments we I was going to take them down the bank to open their first bank accounts.
...
I said all right, we're going to take this down and open bank accounts. I stood back thinking I was going to get run over, and they all 3 sat their looking at me, and my oldest one said:

What if the bank goes bankrupt?
My middle child says, I'd prefer silver. Can I have silver?
And my youngest said, me too.

My wife and I said, I guess it's been leaking in Smiling

Happy horizontal clapping Happy horizontal clapping Happy horizontal clapping

Happy vertical clapping Happy vertical clapping Happy vertical clapping

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Steve Netwriter
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Your house has a 20% chance of burning down

Chris concludes by answering the question "what would you do with your wealth?".

He says (roughly):

Quote:
what would you do if I said "Your house has a 20% chance of burning down"?

I hope you'd buy smoke detectors, a sprinkler system...

I think in probabilities.

I have gold and silver, because I don't want to be all in that house

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Gibber
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"They tried to keep a lid on
Quote:
"They tried to keep a lid on it."

And they failed to control for the carry trade so the housing bubble hit New Zealand as hard as anywhere else.

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Hi Gibber, Yes quite. So

Hi Gibber,
Yes quite.
So that's really two things I maybe disagree with Chris on Smiling
Not sure about the 1st yet!

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Funnily enough I haven't seen

Funnily enough I haven't seen a posting on the CM site about this.... And after my tangle with Erik T I'm choosing to stay in stealth mode on that site. I'm sure someone else will point it out.

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Erik!
Gibber wrote:
Funnily enough I haven't seen a posting on the CM site about this.... And after my tangle with Erik T I'm choosing to stay in stealth mode on that site. I'm sure someone else will point it out.

Erik!

After this:

Debunking the Precious Metals Fear Mongering Campaign - Erik Townsend
http://neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/2777

I wouldn't take him too seriously Smiling

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Good post by Gibber
Quote:
My only comment is your view on NZ Central Bank. Which I disagree with. If i had had coffee in my mouth when you used the New Zealand Central Bank as an example of a Central Bank that was better than the rest, the screen would have been covered with coffee.

New Zealand had a housing bubble from 2002 - 2007. Fuelled by the Carry Trade which the Reserve Bank of NZ (RBNZ) completely mishandled. Every time the RBNZ raised the interest rate, NZ became even more attractive to the originators of the Carry Trade. Plenty of people were prepared to pay a high interest rate when it seemed like 20% per annum capital gains were the new normal.

The only tool the RBNZ chose to use to try to prevent a housing bubble was higher interest rates. This led to a huge influx of hot money via the Carry Trade. John Needham pointed this trade out in early 2008. And boy, did that NZD-JPY Carry Trade rubber band snap in late 2008

Over the past 18 months the RBNZ has been looking at adding other tools to its kit bag like local funding ratios for the local banks. So they have to raise a percentage of the money they lend from onshore sources only. The aim is to prevent the huge housing bubble that occurred from 2002 to 2007, funded to a large degree by offshore money, and the effects of which hit the export sector very hard. So, while they now seem, to a large extent, to have "got it:. Their handling of the issue from 2002 - 2007 was awful.

For me, living in NZ, the RBNZ had, in my opinion, a Big Fail. They were totally impotent and incompetent in their handling of the Carry Trade.

Banks were lending 100% finance on houses. And in New Zealand, the activity of cowboys in every other investment sector meant, to a large degree, housing was the favoured investment. Once the bubble started to be blown, it was away. Just like the USA, UK, Ireland, Australia.

from:

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/crash-course-shorter-form/40989

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